I could see any of those possibilities. The facts on the ground are that Jews don't pick congregations because of movements. They want egalitarian, or they like the rabbi, or their kids are friends with kids who go there, or the shul is a 10 min. drive or a 5 min. walk.The other comments are thoughtful and it's a topic on which everyone can sound like a macher, so go check it out.
Egalitarian practice is a big decider. I know a lot of couples where the man likes a particular Orthodox minyan, and the woman won't put up with the mechitza, so she goes to an egal minyan. Sometimes they join each other, but basically they have different shuls. Where do they send the kids? Each couple decides differently based on many factors. The thing is, these guys are not opposed to egal services, and they are feminists for their daughters. They just happen to like a particular minyan. But a woman can't just happen to like a particular minyan, just like a black person in the south 30 years ago couldn't just happen to decide to eat at a particular restaurant. You have to check it out first. There are lists with descriptions to tell you what to expect.
I think few who are egal will balk at fully accepting gay marriage and rabbis.
At the same time there is a simultaneous move to more traditional services and more experimental services, but overall more musical and invigorating services. (I agree lots of singing doesn't = heightened spirituality, but no singing sure doesn't either. Getting the singing part right is subtle.)
I don't think the movement labels will go away, but I think you will not be as able to predict what kind of a service you will get based on the label, except that "Orthodox" will be the label that describes "not egal and not homosexual." and everyone else will be various mixtures of very traditional (looks just like Orthodox only egal) to very "alternative." AND everyone will shul-hop to all those different places, including the Orthodox shuls. Except the Orthodox who will only shul-hop to other Orthodox shuls, of course.
Someone once had an idea that each Jewish community should give an all-purpose synagogue membership with the JCC dues, then you go to shul wherever you want for one fee. I think the Dallas community already does that as an intro membership for people under 25. I think that's what it's coming to for everyone in a mid-to-large city, but I don't know if a shul can break even or build a community in that model.
Sunday, June 22, 2003
The Jewish future: gays, women, and shul-hopping. Ah yes. One of those topics we never get tired of discussing. The future of the Conservative movement, otherwise known as: time to play musical chairs with all the denominational labels. I don't know how long comments on Protocols stay up, so here's mine:

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