Baghdad 2003 = Prague 1990. (Maybe 2004, depends on how bad the news is from the reconstruction.)
Let the Palestinian middle-class build the peace.
These both derive from the same theory: entrepreneurs build things faster and cheaper than governments, and they would rather trade than fight, so create a solid foundation of law and property rights and then let them loose. The "solid foundation" is easier said than done, but the policy wonk world is generally in favor of this approach to Iraq, but its application to the Palestinian problem and to the Middle East in general has a lower profile. The fact that the Palestinian standard of living rose under Israeli occupation, and dove after Arafat returned in 1994 is also not well-known.
PA Finance Minister Salam Fayyad is the key to the whole thing. Bush likes how he is handling things. We know personal rapport is crucial to Bush and he and this guy bonded. (I don't know if they were introduced by Omar Karsou, but it would stand to reason he is involved at some level.)
Just months ago the administration was seeking to bypass the Palestinian Authority; now it will be pushing to fund it. The U.S. government went from viewing the Palestinian Authority as a corrupt, untrustworthy apparatus, marred by terrorism, to a financially-transparent, responsible partner in the peace process. . . . "The emergence of an accountable Palestinian leadership that has put in place a finance minister, and transparency and accountability measures that I think are starting to give people confidence that the money would be used for what its intended to be used for is another one of those new conditions that we're going to want to take a look at."It would certainly be significant if Fayyad has managed to wrest control of the pocketbook away from Arafat to the extent that prestigious international accounting firms are satisfied; if the US can keep the EU (especially France) from rushing in to rescue Arafat and Hamas like the co-dependent enablers they are, this could be a genuine turning point in how the PA operates.
The proposed changed in policy comes in response to a request from the Palestinian finance minister, Salam Fayyad, when he met with Bush in the White House two weeks ago, well-placed Washington sources said. Fayyad, who previously represented the International Monetary Fund in the West Bank and Gaza, reportedly forged an immediate rapport with Bush. Fayyad's cooperation with Ernst & Young and Deloitte & Touche, the two financial consulting companies hired by the United Nations and the United States government, respectively, to audit the Palestinian Authority's finances, has earned him broad praise.
Which may be why Bush and Powell think the PA is ready to be tested in Gaza. Fayyad has delivered financial accountability, the foundation of a productive society. Now Mazen and his police force must deliver political accountability, legitimizing the state by enforcing its monopoly on force: they must sink their own Altalena. And Hamas - in their stupid "we only know one thing but we know it really well" kind of way - are presenting them with a big fat target.
All the pieces are lined up, although in this multi-dimensional chess game played Alice in Wonderland style, each mutually hostile piece has its own agenda. There are so many independent uncontrollable factors that could derail this approach, but the ideas behind it are sound. Will Abu Mazen have the guts to take out Hamas? (I don't think it's a question of arms or personnel, because to make this work I'm sure Bush or Sharon would loan him a few Special Forces guys.) But the light bulb has to want to change. Stay tuned.
UPDATE: Like I said, the news changes hour by hour. According to Ha'aretz, the Pals are getting cold feet.
. . . it appears the Palestinians are still waiting for Hamas to announce whether it agrees to the cease-fire proposal before accepting any such responsibility.Dahlan, the task before you is not to reach an accomodation with Hamas. Hamas is not a co-ruler of the Palestinian State. Your task is to establish a monopoly of force and authority. Otherwise, your "state" is a fiction.
In Washington, the IDF director of military intelligence, Major-General Aharon Ze’evi (Farkash), is to . . . present the Americans with Israeli intelligence’s assessment of the Palestinian Authority’s efforts and ability to fight terror, and will also touch on regional issues, such as Iran and Syria. Last week, the head of the Shin Bet security service Avi Dichter visited Washington, where he presented Israeli’s assessment of how the PA could best act against the terror infrastructure of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.Like I said, the US and Israel are willing to help the PA along, if only the PA will take responsibility.
(For those who are pessimistic about this scenario - I'm not optimistic either, I'm just pointing out that this seems to be Bush's plan. And Fayyad's success in putting the PA's finances in order is a big deal.)
UPDATE: Contrary to some handwringing in the blogosphere about the intentions of the Bush administration, their eyes are on the prize.
Israel and the Bush administration want the Palestinian prime minister . . . to use the lull as an interlude for consolidating power, after which they expect him to crack down on Hamas. Abu Mazen, however, has said he has no intention of cracking down. Instead, he has said on several occasions, he hopes to use the cease-fire as a first stage toward domesticating Hamas, leading to a power-sharing arrangement at the helm of the budding Palestinian state.However,
Publicly, the administration is skeptical of the trustworthiness of such an intra-Palestinian cease-fire and condemns Hamas in the strongest possible terms as a terrorist organization that strives to undermine peace efforts. In private, however . . . they know that a cease-fire is the only feasible result they can get out of Abu Mazen," a former American diplomat with close contacts to the administration said of President Bush and his aides. "Although the president strongly dislikes the idea of negotiating with terrorists, he now understands that this is the only thing you can do at the moment."
. . . Bush "exploded with anger" when Abu Mazen told him he is trying to reach an agreement with Hamas and other opposition factions. . . . when he explained to Bush at the Sharm al-Sheikh summit two weeks ago that he is negotiating with the Palestinian militants, Bush replied: "There cannot be an agreement with terrorists." Later, according to the report, Bush told Abu Mazen that "a cease-fire is not the whole story," apparently meaning that the lull will have to be followed by a disarmament effort, and perhaps more.Bush exploding in anger is a good thing. I think the last time he did that in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it was when Arafat lied to him about the Karinne-A, which was a milestone in Bush's enlightenment on the issues and approach to the conflict.
I think this is rope-a-dope all over again. I think Mazen will fink out just like France and Germany did at the UNSC over Iraq. At which point Bush can say "I gave him every chance" and give the Israelis leave to go in and clean up.
. . . Abu Mazen may have effectively sealed his fate by declining to accept security responsibility for Gaza in the immediate aftermath of the Aqaba summit. Mofaz believes that since then, Hamas has only strengthened its position in Palestinian public opinion and that Abbas himself, because of his hesitation, has grown steadily weaker. . . . Israel is already "preparing the ground" for "the day after" the probable collapse of the cease-fire, in both the diplomatic and operational arenas. The defense establishment believes that if and when the P.A. proves inept at fighting terrorism, the Bush administration will have no choice but to support an all-out Israeli offensive against Hamas.
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