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Tuesday, November 19, 2002

Oil prices won't soar when we take out Sadaam: Nobel laureate Gary S. Becker, writing in Business Week (Nov. 25), suggests that as long as the war is over relatively quickly, we won't see any rough spike in the price of oil:
After a defeat of Saddam, a friendlier and more democratic Iraqi government is likely to be installed. Oil prices would then fall further than they did after the Desert Storm cease-fire, since that government would be released from the oil-embargo restrictions that were imposed on Iraq under the previous regime. A new government would also look for oil revenue to help rebuild an Iraqi economy that has deteriorated so greatly under Saddam. Since Iraq has the world's second-largest oil reserves, it has considerable potential for greatly increased production.