Kesher Talk

A Little Nuke'll Do Ya: Charles Krauthammer has a great article in Time on the reasons why we must not allow Saddam to get nuclear weapons. The first reason is that Saddam might not be as rational as we think, and use nuclear weapons even if it means his death and the death of his people. The second reason is based on the logical doctrine of deterrence. Even if Saddam wouldn't use the nuke, the fact that he even had one would allow him to do all sorts of terrible things to non-nuclear nations using conventional weapons. The world would be powerless to stop him.

Here's my problem. A nuclear strike by Iraq is only irrational if you've got something to lose. Saddam obviously doesn't care about the people of Iraq. The only thing that matters to him is himself. In that way, a nuclear strike is irrational because it would meant the end of his reign, and ostensibly, his life. But with all the talk about Saddam's waning health it is conceivable that there will come a time when he doesn't care about his life or reign either. The limits of Realism in International Relations are being stretched here, because we have never seen a totalitarian ruled country with nuclear weapons. In a liberal democracy, a leader is almost never allowed to rule until his death nowadays. In that case, even a leader who is on the way out of office would refrain from doing something that would get himself killed, head of state or not. In a totalitarian regime, though, a leader who has been given a week to live has absolutely nothing to lose by launching a suicidal nuclear strike.

In Saddam's case, there is an extra worry. He is not merely a totalitarian. He is a a totalitarian with delusions of grandeur, thinking himself the Arab Messiah. If he had a day to live and one nuclear weapon to use, he wouldn't strike America, which while tragic, would be a drop in the bucket. He would attack Israel, which could conceivably lose a quarter of it's population in a single targeted nuclear attack. He would be a Muslim hero and would lose nothing personally. Israel knew it when they attacked Osirak, and America knows it now. More than fearing an irrational attack using nukes or a rational one without them,. we should truly fear any situation where a nuclear strike would be considered rational to the only person that matters; the one with his finger on the button.

posted by Rami @ 8/28/2002 02:06:16 PM